Fan of Nigerian one thousand naira banknotes

Market note, 31 August 2026. For live figures see our exchange rate board.

Mid-market reference rates put the naira at roughly 1,339 to 1,347 to the dollar on 31 August, depending on the source. That is firmer than importers saw through much of the year, and the currency has been holding its gains rather than giving them straight back.

Where the support is coming from

Part of it is oil. Nigeria’s 2026 budget assumes a crude benchmark of $64.85 a barrel. Brent is currently around $90, and production averaged 1.72 million barrels a day in the second quarter, up from 1.68 million a year earlier. Higher volume at a higher price means more dollars earned. That is the mechanism. More foreign exchange earnings, better reserves, less pressure on the currency.

Why a firmer naira is not the same as a safe rate

A stable rate makes a quotation hold its shape and lets you plan a landed cost without the figure moving underneath you. That is genuinely useful, and it makes this a reasonable window in which to settle prices and complete payments. What it does not do is make an old rate safe to reuse. On a $50,000 machine, a twenty naira move is one million naira. On a 100,000 yuan invoice, a five naira move on the cross rate is 500,000 naira. Import values are large enough that a rate you did not re-check produces a real number, and it is usually discovered after the money has gone. The common error is not carelessness. It is that a rate quoted at the start of a conversation gets carried through the whole process and nobody revisits it before settlement.

What to actually do

Check the rate at four points rather than one. When you first price the product. Before you commit to the supplier. Before you pay. And when you finalise the landed cost. And remember that the published figure is a reference rather than what you will pay. Your bank’s rate, a bureau rate and the rate at which your supplier is actually settled will all differ from it, generally against you. Build the costing on the rate you can transact at.

The caution

Currency support that comes from an oil price spike lasts exactly as long as the spike. The same Hormuz tension holding crude at $90 could resolve, and the support would go with it. Use a calm market. Do not plan on it continuing.

Paying a supplier soon? We can work through the product, the shipment and the currency exposure and tell you what it is likely to land at. There is no charge for it. See the live board or get in touch.