Container terminal at dusk with gantry cranes and ships

Market note, 31 August 2026. Freight conditions change daily; confirm current terms with your forwarder.

When a shipping lane becomes contested, the cost does not arrive as a single announced increase. It arrives as several smaller adjustments, and most of them are not called freight.

The four places it shows up

War risk insurance is the first and fastest. Underwriters reprice affected areas within days, and the premium is passed to cargo. Bunker surcharges are the second. Bunker fuel is a refined product, so it follows crude. Rerouting is the third. A longer voyage means more days at sea, more fuel, and vessels tied up for longer, which tightens available capacity on routes that never went near the disruption. Schedule reliability is the fourth, and it is the one that costs Nigerian importers the most. A vessel that arrives late still meets the same terminal free days at Apapa or Tin Can. Storage and demurrage do not wait for your paperwork to catch up.

What to do if you already have goods booked

Ask your forwarder three questions this week. Whether your routing touches affected waters at any leg. Whether the quoted rate is fixed or subject to surcharge adjustment before sailing. And what the revised estimated arrival is, so you can plan clearing rather than react to it. If arrival has moved, that changes when your Form M documentation, your funds and your haulage need to be ready. Free days start on arrival, not on the date you were originally expecting.

What to put in the next quotation you accept

Ask for the surcharge position in writing. A rate that can be adjusted upward before sailing is not really a rate, and it is better to know that at the point of agreement. Ask for the validity period. Most freight quotations expire, and buyers routinely plan against a figure that has lapsed. And build the demurrage risk into the plan rather than the hope. If you are moving a loaded container up-country, remember the empty has to come back to Lagos and be accepted by the line, with detention running until it is. On a long route that empty’s round trip can cost more than the freight on the goods, which is often why destuffing in Lagos and moving only your goods is the better answer.

The honest position on timing

Any date given for shipping, arrival or clearing is an estimate made in good faith. Vessels, ports and customs are not within anyone’s control, least of all during a disruption. An honest range you are kept informed about is worth more than a comfortable date that slips.

Have a shipment in transit or about to book? We manage the chain so there is one company accountable for it, and we quote freight, duty, clearing and delivery as separate lines rather than one figure you are asked to trust. Get in touch.