Market note, 31 August 2026. Figures were correct when checked and move quickly.

Brent crude reached $90.31 a barrel on Monday, up 2.51 per cent on the day, with WTI at $85.23. The move followed a United States strike on Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island on Sunday 30 August, and Iranian missile and drone attacks on American bases in Jordan early on Monday. The dispute turns on allegations that Iran was preparing to lay sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz. It is worth noting how fast this particular number travels. Six days earlier, an Iran and Oman proposal for a joint navigational corridor had pushed Brent down to $86.28.

Why an importer should care about a crude price

Because three separate lines on your cost sheet take their direction from it, and they move together. The first is diesel. If your plant runs on a generator for any part of the day, your cost per kilowatt-hour follows the pump price, and the pump price follows crude with a short lag. The second is ocean freight. Bunker fuel is a refined product, and war risk insurance premiums rise when a shipping lane is contested. Both land in your freight quotation. The third is the one people forget. Polymer resin is a petrochemical product. HDPE, LDPE and PP all begin life in an oil and gas stream, so film and moulding feedstock follows crude upward, typically after a lag of some weeks rather than immediately.

The practical instruction

It is narrow and it is worth acting on this week. If you are building a costing now, do not use a resin price or a freight quotation obtained before the weekend. Ask your supplier and your forwarder to requote, and put a validity date on whatever they give you. If you are mid-order with a price already agreed, check whether your supplier’s quotation has an expiry or an escalation clause. Many do, and buyers discover them at the worst moment.

The side that runs the other way

Nigeria sells oil, and that matters here. The 2026 budget assumes a benchmark of $64.85 a barrel. At $90 the country is well above that, which improves foreign exchange earnings and tends to support the naira. A stronger naira makes every imported item cheaper in local terms. So the effect on you is genuinely two-sided, and which side wins depends on how long the price holds. A spike that resolves inside a fortnight will never reach resin or container rates. One that persists for a quarter will reach all of them. Anybody telling you confidently which way this goes is guessing.

Costing an import this week? Tell us what you are bringing in and we will work through the product, the shipment and the currency exposure, and tell you what it is likely to land at. There is no charge for it. Get in touch.