Fan of Nigerian one thousand naira banknotes

Market note, May 2026. For current figures see our live rate board.

There is the rate that gets published, and there is the rate an importer actually settles at. When those two diverge, the difference is not a statistic. It is money leaving your account.

Why the gap exists at all

Official windows do not always meet the full demand for foreign currency, and businesses that cannot source what they need through formal channels make up the shortfall elsewhere, at a worse rate. That affects small and mid-sized importers hardest. Larger firms with established banking relationships and documented trade histories get served first. A business bringing in its second container is further down the queue and more likely to be paying the premium on part or all of a payment.

What it does to a landed cost

The damage is quiet, because most costings are built on the official figure. An importer prices a purchase at the published rate, plans a selling price around it, and only discovers the real cost when the payment is actually made. By then the margin has already been decided and the goods are on their way. A premium of even a few percent on a large payment is a substantial share of a normal trading margin, and it is the kind of loss that appears nowhere in the accounts as its own line. It simply shows up as a disappointing month.

What to do about it

Cost your import at the rate you can genuinely transact at, not the one that gets published. If part of a payment will come through a formal window and part will not, cost the blend rather than the better half. Establish early what your bank can actually provide and on what timeline, because a formal allocation that arrives late is not the same as one that arrives. Delay has its own cost while demurrage runs. And build your model in dollars per unit, then convert. That way a rate change alters one line in your costing instead of quietly invalidating the whole thing.

The honest position

No sourcing company can get you a better rate than the market gives you, and any that claims otherwise is worth avoiding. What can be done is to cost the purchase on realistic assumptions, tell you what the currency exposure genuinely is before you commit, and make sure the number you decide on is the number you will actually pay.

Want your currency exposure worked out before you commit? Tell us what you are planning to import and we will cost it properly, including what the rate is likely to do to it. There is no charge. Request a cost review or get in touch.