High-rise tower block photographed in black and white

Market note, May 2026. For current figures see our live rate board.

External reserves look like a macroeconomic statistic. For an importer they are closer to a queue length. Reserves are the buffer a central bank holds to defend the currency and meet demand for foreign exchange. When that buffer is comfortable, more dollars reach businesses through official channels. When it is thin, the queue lengthens and the shortfall gets made up at a worse rate.

Why it reaches your invoice

A stronger reserve position tends to mean two things at once for a buyer. The currency is easier to defend, so the rate moves less between the day you price a purchase and the day you settle it. And official windows can meet more of the demand, so a smaller share of your payment has to be sourced elsewhere at a premium. Both of those show up directly in a landed cost, which is why a figure published in a policy report is not as remote from your business as it sounds.

Who feels it most

Not the largest importers. Businesses with established banking relationships and long documented trade histories are served first whatever the conditions. The buffer matters most to smaller and newer importers, who are further down the queue and more exposed when allocations tighten. So an improving reserve position is disproportionately good news for exactly the buyer who has least room to absorb a bad rate.

What not to conclude from it

A healthier buffer is not a reason to relax the discipline. Reserves move with oil receipts, portfolio flows and policy decisions, none of which an importer controls or can forecast. A comfortable position this quarter says nothing certain about the next. The sensible response is to use a favourable period rather than to rely on it. Settle prices and complete payments while conditions are good, keep costing in the invoice currency and converting once, and confirm what your bank can genuinely provide and on what timeline before you agree terms with a supplier. Good conditions are a window. They are not a change in how the arithmetic works.

Planning an import and want the currency side worked out? Tell us what you are bringing in and we will cost it on realistic assumptions rather than favourable ones. There is no charge. Request a cost review or get in touch.